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25. 8. 2026
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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeRisk-on
The one thing today

Stocks lead a resilient risk-on tone, but crypto's mixed tape and crude's cost-push create a delicate balance; a break of SPX above 7,800 or BTC below $83k would clarify the next leg.

65Risk-on
BearishNeutralBullish

Equities remain in a clear uptrend with low volatility and tight credit, while crypto stalls with BTC dominance sticky and alt season subdued. Gold's steady bid and crude's creeping cost-push add cross-currents, but overall momentum still favors risk-assets as long as HY spreads stay tight and VIX low.

25. 8. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarNo feed
est
est · DXY unavailable
US 10YNo feed
est
est · DGS10 unavailable
GoldHedge
$4,627
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTICost push
$86.5
▲ 0.5% · adds cost-push
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBTC-led
59.2%
▼ 0.3pp · BTC-led tape
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
33 / 100
16 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedGreed
73
greed · greed building
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.010%/8h
≈ +11% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,674
▲ 8.2% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
16.0
▲ 7.5% · vol contained
HY creditTight
275 bp
▲ 2bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
Continued SPX breadth above 65% and a BTC move above $88k would reinforce the risk-on regime.
⚠︎Crude oil breaking above $90 would amplify cost-push pressures and challenge the equities rally.
⚠︎A rapid widening of HY credit spreads above 300 bp or VIX jumping above 20 would signal a shift to risk-off.
Top crypto
The Club · UNI up to $4.40 (1.41x vs entry)
$6–8 implied. 92% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto
Top stocks
Druckenmiller criticizes Treasury buybacks as yield suppression
Investors should expect higher long-term yields as the Treasury yields to market forces, which could pressure equity valuations and credit spreads as fiscal discipline is tested.
Open Stocks
What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
FOMC minutes (Feb 19) — rate-path cues for risk sentimentFeb 19
US CPI revision (annual benchmark) — potential repricing of inflation expectationsFeb 12
Monthly crypto options expiry — gamma-driven volatility around $85k BTCFeb 28
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls