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Biggest crypto news
The Club · AAVE up to $141.68 (1.49x vs entry)
Why it matters — Bear $164 / Base $250 / Bull $400. 92% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
1Signalsthe 1 that matter
01
The Club · AAVE up to $141.68 (1.49x vs entry)
7.5
Why — Bear $164 / Base $250 / Bull $400. 92% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
↗CockpitCrypto
2Watch1 themes · 7 notes
Market context
MajorsBTC $76,895 (-1.1% 24h) · ETH $2,438 (-1.0% 24h) · SOL $94.21 (-1.3% 24h)
BTC spot ETFs saw $1.918B in net inflows last week (Wu Blockchain), a massive demand signal from institutional channels.
Lookonchain reports market makers (Abraxas, Fasanara, Wintermute) hold $603M in combined short ETH/BTC positions, creating a potential squeeze setup.
Ki Young Ju notes OG whales opened massive longs at the bottom last week, and BTC rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in.
Checkmate points to seller exhaustion and 'bears in pain' after February price capitulation and June time-pain capitulation, suggesting supply is drying up.
Arthur Hayes flags an 'explosive Asia open' ahead, with green dojis holding over the weekend and a weaker USD tailwind for risk assets.
Gold futures surged above $4,700/oz (Kobeissi Letter) and the MSCI EM Currency Index hit an all-time high, reinforcing a macro environment supportive of crypto.
3Actions1 · save now, convert to tasks later
Thesis review
1 items
Review The Club: AAVE at 1.49x vs entry (92% deployed).
→What's expectedcrypto, next 1–2 weeks
◆Spot Bitcoin ETF weekly inflow data (next print)this week
◆Potential short squeeze on $603M+ market maker shorts in ETH/BTCongoing
◆Tokenization narrative gaining traction as institutional capital rotates into alts (Ignas)ongoing
◆US dollar weakness and EM currency strength continuing to fuel risk-on flowsongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
◆The Clubsource of truth · live vs Kraken
Club readas of 16:06
97% deployed, $201 dry powder — positioned for continuation. Stress point: SECZ 0.63× vs entry. Working: UNI 1.37×.
Deployed97%
Dry powder$201Assets13
70%Tokenization10%AI × Crypto5%Onchain Fundraising5%Privacy
gray = club entry · white = my fill
Tokenization Bucket70%
SECZex-CEPT40%40%$11.00$9.93$6.900.63×0.69×Bear $5 / Base $20 / Bull $70Base $46 / Bull $123
ONDO5%9%~$0.280$0.362$0.3631.30×1.00×Multi-year hold2–3yr core hold
SKY5%5%$0.070$0.068$0.0680.98×1.00×Bear $0.08 / Base $0.22 / Bull $0.52Base $0.37 / Bull $0.70
AAVEback in · 3%→5%5%9%$95.00$124.42$124.851.31×1.00×Bear $164 / Base $250 / Bull $400Base $400–700
AERO5%5%—$0.561$0.519—0.93×Long-term hold
UNI5%10%$3.12$4.27$4.281.37×1.00×$6–8 impliedTokenization tailwind
JUP5%9%—$0.219$0.221—1.01×Long-term hold
LINKclub out 18.5.0%3%—$11.33$11.36—1.00×$13–14Core hold
AI × Crypto Bucket10%
NEAR2%2%$1.55$1.83$1.851.19×1.01×Base ~$9.40Bull: solver scale upside
VIRTUAL3%—$0.650—$0.7481.15×—Long-term spot holdAI narrative
REPPO1%2%—$0.013$0.013—1.00×Early stage
CASHBeing deployed3%0%
Onchain Fundraising Bucket5%
METAMetaDAO2%———$2,769——Platform for token launchesPost safe-harbor rule
CASHWaiting for SEC safe-harbor rule3%0%
Privacy Bucket5%
ZECZcash5%4%$670.00$771.14$775.321.16×1.01×Stop-loss: $150Recovery post-Orchard bug
My picks (not in the club)2%
RENDER—2%——$1.52——Personal satellite — my allocation only
Reference / macroBTC $78,530ETH $2,459SOL $96.82
Changes since last snapshot
▼ONDO 1.40× → 1.30× vs entry
▼AAVE 1.37× → 1.31× vs entry
▼NEAR 1.28× → 1.19× vs entry
▼VIRTUAL 1.27× → 1.15× vs entry
▼ZEC 1.27× → 1.16× vs entry
▲Deployment 92% → 97%
source: club thesis · live Kraken prices · daily snapshot