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22. 8. 2026

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August 2026 · Financial · Overview

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Market regime live

Risk regime · reading the tapeRisk-on

The one thing today

Stocks and crypto are both in risk-on mode, but rising bond yields and crude oil are the key triggers that could flip this to risk-off if they accelerate.

65Risk-on

BearishNeutralBullish

Equities are riding a solid uptrend with low vol and tight credit, while crypto shows moderate momentum with greed building but no clear altcoin rotation. The cross-asset picture is supportive for risk assets as the dollar eases, but the bearish tilt in bonds and crude oil is a growing headwind that could pressure both markets.

22. 8. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks

Cross-asset · what's driving risk

US DollarTailwind

118.9

▼ 0.2% · dollar easing, risk tailwind

US 10YTightening

4.69%

▲ 4bp · yields rising

GoldHedge

$4,604

live spot · debasement / haven bid

Crude · WTICost push

$86.5

▲ 0.5% · adds cost-push

Crypto regimeMixed

BTC dominanceNo feed

—est

est · dominance unavailable

Altcoin seasonBTC-led

43 / 100

21 of top 50 beat BTC 30d

Fear & GreedGreed

greed · greed building

Perp funding · OIMild long

+0.010%/8h

≈ +11% APR · balanced carry

Stocks regimeRisk-on

Trend · SPXUptrend

7,674

▲ 8.2% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA

BreadthMixed

≈ 60%est

est · share of S&P > 200DMA

VIXCalm

16.0

▲ 7.5% · vol contained

HY creditTight

275 bp

▲ 2bp · credit calm

⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks

✓Dollar easing and contained VIX confirm the risk-on read for now.

⚠︎A sustained break above 4.75% on the 10Y would signal tighter financial conditions and threaten risk assets.

⚠︎Crude above $90 would add significant cost-push pressure, potentially derailing the equity uptrend and crypto sentiment.

Top crypto

The Club · ONDO up to $0.424 (1.51x vs entry)

Multi-year hold. 93% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.

Open Crypto

Top stocks

Treasury activist buyback shok rates, retrces partially

The move marks a regime change in debt management, effectively admitting the administration is stepping into the bond market to cap long-end yields. Investors must reprice term premium and consider the risk of stealth yield-curve control. If fiscal consolidation isn't credible, the backlash could hammer Treasurys.

Open Stocks

→What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks

◆US CPI data — inflation print could validate or challenge the current risk-on narrative.Wed

◆BTC dominance move — a drop below 55% would signal altcoin season and confirm crypto momentum.next week

◆Fed speakers — any hawkish shift could amplify the bond selloff and test risk appetite.ongoing

Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls