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20. 8. 2026
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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeRisk-on
The one thing today

美元持续走弱是当前跨资产风险偏好的核心支撑,若DXY回升至120以上将显著改变这一格局。

65Risk-on
BearishNeutralBullish

股票市场维持强势,SPX稳守200日均线上方,信用利差收紧,而加密市场动量中性但贪婪情绪升温。美元疲软与国债收益率稳定为风险资产提供了顺风,但原油成本上升构成边际逆风。总体来看,风险偏好延续,但内部轮动分化。

20. 8. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
118.9
▼ 0.2% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YSteady
4.71%
▼ 1bp · yields steady
GoldHedge
$4,490
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTICost push
$84.8
▲ 1.2% · adds cost-push
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBTC-led
58.2%
BTC-led tape
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
27 / 100
13 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedGreed
62
greed · greed building
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.010%/8h
≈ +11% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,708
▲ 8.8% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
15.8
▲ 4.3% · vol contained
HY creditTight
275 bp
▲ 5bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
美元弱势与信贷宽松环境确认当前风险偏好可持续。
⚠︎若DXY反弹突破120或WTI原油涨至90美元以上,将对风险资产形成反向压力。
⚠︎加密市场若出现资金费率骤降或BTC失守60,000美元,可能引发杠杆平仓连锁反应。
Top crypto
The Club · ONDO up to $0.345 (1.23x vs entry)
Multi-year hold. 91% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto
Top stocks
July FOMC minutes show hawkish lean, AI references spike
The Fed is increasingly focused on forward-looking AI-driven inflation risks, which could justify a hike even if lagging data softens. This keeps rate-sensitive sectors under pressure.
Open Stocks
What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
美国CPI数据发布(若超预期可能推升收益率)周三
标普500指数200日均线测试(当前约7,085)关键支撑
美联储会议纪要(关注降息路径线索)下周
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls