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18. 8. 2026
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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today

Equities are riding the dollar tailwind, but crypto sentiment remains cautious; the key is whether bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day moving average near $82,000 to align with the risk-on equity pulse, or if rising yields above 4.75% and crude above $85 stall the rally.

60Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish

The dollar's easing is providing a tailwind for risk assets, pushing stocks to new highs with SPX at 7,745 and HY credit tight. However, crypto remains neutral with fear and balanced funding, not yet joining the rally. The macro cross-currents of rising yields and crude cost-push add a layer of caution that could temper the equity advance if they persist.

18. 8. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
118.9
▼ 0.2% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YTightening
4.68%
▲ 5bp · yields rising
GoldHedge
$4,395
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTICost push
$84.8
▲ 1.2% · adds cost-push
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceNo feed
est
est · dominance unavailable
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
49 / 100
24 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedFear
41
fear · balanced mood
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.003%/8h
≈ +4% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,745
▲ 9.4% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXNo feed
est
est · VIX unavailable
HY creditTight
267 bp
▼ 4bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
The current risk-on tilt in stocks, supported by dollar easing and tight credit, is consistent with a pro-risk environment that validates the neutral-to-bullish cross-asset read.
⚠︎A sustained rise in the 10-year yield above 4.75% would tighten financial conditions, potentially weighing on equities and reversing the dollar tailwind.
⚠︎If crude oil breaks above $85, the cost-push shock could slow economic momentum and flip risk appetite, undermining the equity rally and keeping crypto subdued.
Top crypto
The Club · ZEC down to $509.76 (0.76x vs entry)
Stop-loss: $150. 90% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto
Top stocks
Trump suggests declaring Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory
Any disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows would spike oil prices, hit consumer discretionary and transport stocks, and boost energy and defense sectors.
Open Stocks
What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
US CPI release (next week) – key for rate path expectations and dollar/yield direction.CPI
Bitcoin ETF weekly flow data – strong inflows could catalyze a crypto breakout and align it with the equity risk-on mood.flows
Fed speeches this week – any hawkish shift could stall the dollar decline and tighten financial conditions.Fed
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls