Daily intelligence brief
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13. 8. 2026
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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,749
▲ 9.7% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
15.3
▼ 1.2% · vol contained
HY creditTight
272 bp
▲ 2bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
July CPI: Core +0.22%, 12-month 2.5% – Five-Year Lows in Median/Trimmed-Mean
Why it matters — Investors should watch for the Fed's reaction; a September hike is still possible if political pressure mounts, but the data supports a hold. Bond yields may stay range-bound.
𝕏x.comrates
9.0
1Signalsthe 6 that matter
01
July CPI: Core +0.22%, 12-month 2.5% – Five-Year Lows in Median/Trimmed-Mean
Why — Investors should watch for the Fed's reaction; a September hike is still possible if political pressure mounts, but the data supports a hold. Bond yields may stay range-bound.
𝕏x.comRates
9.0
02
NVDA Outperforming SOX Again – AI Trade Resurgent; Memory Cycle Bullish
8.5
Why — Renewed AI leadership by NVDA could drive a rotation back into semis and AI infrastructure plays. Memory stocks may continue to rally if demand holds.
𝕏x.comAi
03
Trump Claims US Control of Strait of Hormuz – 'Wall of Steel'
Why — Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global oil supply, supporting crude prices and energy stocks. Defense and shipping sectors may also be impacted.
𝕏x.comEnergy
8.0
04
Warren Pies: September Hike Underpriced at 38% – Political Pressure Rising
Why — If the market re-prices a September hike, short-term rates and the dollar could rally, pressuring equities. Energy-sensitive sectors may underperform.
𝕏x.comRates
7.5
05
US Federal Deficit Hits -$432B in July, Highest in 5+ Years; Interest Expense $1.37T
Why — Surging deficits and debt service costs could pressure long-term Treasury yields and crowd out private investment. Fiscal sustainability concerns may weigh on risk sentiment.
𝕏x.comMacro
7.5
06
$1tn+ Buybacks, Systematics Rebuilding, Retail Back – Forced Buying Ahead?
Why — Strong buyback and flow support could underpin equity valuations, especially in large caps. However, if positioning becomes crowded, a reversal could be sharp.
𝕏x.comEquities
7.0
2Watch4 themes · 9 notes

Rates & the Fed

Jim BiancoGasoline prices fell 1.9% in July, contributing -0.08% to YoY CPI; stable gas helped explain tight CPI estimates.

Earnings & Sectors

Cisco (CSCO)Record FY2026 revenue, highest productivity metrics in 30 years; CFO guides durable growth and capital returns.
Lyft (LYFT)CEO says Waymo integration on Lyft app before year-end.
Cloudflare (NET)CEO notes nonhuman traffic has now passed human traffic online.
Nike (NKE)Shares sank to 2014 lows after warning of 'challenged' sales environment in Q4.

Positioning & Flows

Sherwood NewsRobinhood traders bought the dip repeatedly; 'you gotta spend money to make money' market.
Charlie BilelloTariffs refunded but companies kept price increases; no tariff dividend checks.

Macro Data & Geopolitics

Brad SetserEast Asia's customs trade surplus annualized ~$1.7 trillion; China car exports poised to jump 3.5m in 2026 alone.
CitriniUS military missile spending near 5x increase in FY2027 budget; missile restocking theme.
3Actions5 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

5 items
Track August PPI and retail sales data this week for further inflation and consumer demand signals.
Monitor oil prices and any new developments in the Strait of Hormuz blockade; potential for energy sector volatility.
Watch for Fed speakers' commentary post-CPI to gauge September hike probability shifts.
Follow AI-related earnings and capex updates from NVDA, AMD, and memory makers for demand sustainability.
Keep an eye on US Treasury auction results and yield curve dynamics amid rising deficit concerns.
What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
August CPI report (mid-Sep) – key for Fed decisionmid-Sep
FOMC meeting Sep 16-17 – rate decision and dot plot16-17 Sep
Q3 earnings season kickoff – AI and consumer health in focusOct
Geopolitical escalation in Middle East – potential oil supply disruptionongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+48 bp)
10Y Treasury4.70% · Steady
Crude (WTI)$84.8 · Cost push