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12. 8. 2026
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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumNeutral
60/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,728
▲ 9.5% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
15.5
▲ 3.8% · vol contained
HY creditNo feed
est
est · OAS unavailable
Biggest stocks news
CPI Preview: Wednesday's print is critical for the Fed
Why it matters — The CPI outcome will directly shape market pricing for the September FOMC meeting; a hot print could force the Fed to hike, while a soft print keeps the cut/hold narrative intact. Bond yields and equity risk premia are highly sensitive to this data.
𝕏x.comrates
9.5
1Signalsthe 6 that matter
01
CPI Preview: Wednesday's print is critical for the Fed
9.5
Why — The CPI outcome will directly shape market pricing for the September FOMC meeting; a hot print could force the Fed to hike, while a soft print keeps the cut/hold narrative intact. Bond yields and equity risk premia are highly sensitive to this data.
𝕏x.comRates
02
30-year bond yields hit 5.28%, a 19-year high
9.0
Why — Surging long-term yields tighten financial conditions independently of the Fed's policy rate, pressuring equities and housing. It also signals that the bond market doubts the Fed's ability to control inflation without further tightening.
𝕏x.comRates
03
Big Tech capex guidance surged again in Q2 earnings
Why — Capex continues to accelerate far beyond prior estimates, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout theme. However, the scale of spending raises questions about returns and free cash flow dilution, especially given negative FCF at Google.
𝕏x.comEarnings
8.5
04
Nvidia announces $500B financing deal with major credit managers
8.0
Why — This is a structural shift in AI infrastructure financing that reduces Nvidia's idiosyncratic risk but increases the complexity of the credit backstop. It may also signal that Nvidia wants to offload balance-sheet risk as capex scales massively.
𝕏x.comAi
05
Consumer credit card delinquencies near 2011 highs
Why — Rising consumer credit stress suggests that the lower-income household is under pressure despite a strong labor market. This could weigh on consumer spending and discretionary equities, while also increasing credit risk for banks.
𝕏x.comCredit
7.5
06
Gold ripped, CTAs flipped bullish, FOMO returning
7.0
Why — Gold's breakout and the shift in CTA positioning could signal a broader rotation into real assets and a hedge against inflation/stagflation. It also reflects a loss of confidence in central bank credibility.
𝕏x.comMacro
2Watch4 themes · 9 notes

Earnings & sectors

Super Micro CEO'Added several hundred enterprise customers, $60B in new orders, record backlog.' Stock up 9% AH (The Transcript).
CoreWeave CEO'Reached an inflection point, expanding operating leverage, demand accelerating.' Stock up 12% AH (The Transcript).
Semis laggingTaiwan near ATHs but SOX sitting below resistance; puts dirt cheap and everyone chasing upside (The Market Ear).

Positioning & flows

Korea washed outleverage gone, vol crashed, valuations reset – now interesting (The Market Ear).

Macro data & consumer

July existing home sales -1.7% m/m vs +1.0% est; median price up +2.0% y/y (Liz Ann Sonders).
NFIB Small Business Optimism rose to 99.8 vs 97.5 est, highest since August (Liz Ann Sonders).
US rents down 1.1% YoY for 38th consecutive month; renting cheaper than mortgage in all 50 largest metros (Charlie Bilello).

AI & Thematic

Datacenter construction tracking ahead of schedule; no evidence of delays or cancellations yet (Warren Pies).
Bianco's podcast'Valuations in an Earnings Explosion' – earnings keep rising but valuations questionable; quant models in trouble (Bianco).
3Actions5 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

5 items
Track today's July CPI release (core CPI expected +0.2% m/m) and the market's reaction in rates and equities.
Monitor the 30-year Treasury yield (5.28% new high) for further spikes; watch for any Fed commentary responding to the move.
Watch for any follow-up on Nvidia's $500B financing deal – credit market reception and details on the structure.
Keep an eye on SMCI and CoreWeave after-hours moves for continuation in AI hardware names.
Track gold and CTA positioning for signs of a sustained trend or a reversal.
What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
July CPI data (core & headline)12 Aug
Fed Chair Warsh's next speech or comments on CPIthis week
Sept FOMC meeting – rate decision & dot plotSep 16-17
Q2 earnings season continues – focus on retail/consumer namesongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+48 bp)
10Y Treasury4.72% · Tightening
Crude (WTI)$82.0 · Disinflat.