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August 2026 · Financial · Stocks
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S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,753
▲ 9.9% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXComplacent
14.9
▼ 1.7% · low vol, complacent
HY creditTight
270 bp
• 1bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
CPI Make-or-Break for Fed Disinflation
Why it matters — A soft CPI could relieve pressure on the Fed and support risk assets; a hot print could revive rate hike fears and trigger a sell-off in bonds and equities.
1Signalsthe 6 that matter
01
CPI Make-or-Break for Fed Disinflation
9.0
Why — A soft CPI could relieve pressure on the Fed and support risk assets; a hot print could revive rate hike fears and trigger a sell-off in bonds and equities.
𝕏x.comMacro
02
Hammack Calls for More Than 25bps Hike
8.5
Why — Adds to hawkish Fed rhetoric, increasing the probability of a September hike. Markets have not fully priced a move larger than 25bps.
𝕏x.comRates
03
S&P 500 Earnings Expected to Surge 32% in 2026
Why — Implies continued upward pressure on equity valuations if realized, but also raises the bar for earnings beats. Any disappointment in AI-related earnings could be amplified.
𝕏x.comEarnings
8.0
04
NDX Positioning Most Bearish Since ChatGPT Launch
7.5
Why — Extreme bearish positioning in tech could be a contrarian signal for a short-term bounce, but it also reflects deep skepticism about valuations and AI monetization timelines.
𝕏x.comEquities
05
Energy Longs Approaching Historical Extremes
7.0
Why — Crowded energy longs could lead to a sharp reversal if oil prices roll over or if macro concerns re-emerge. Suggests caution for energy sector exposure.
𝕏x.comEnergy
06
AI Datacenter Buildout Still on Track, No Delays Yet
Why — Alleviates fears of a capex slowdown in the AI space. Supports the narrative of sustained demand for compute and cloud infrastructure, positive for semis and hyperscalers.
𝕏x.comAi
7.0
2Watch4 themes · 12 notes
Rates & the Fed
BiancoFOMC now twelve independent voters; criticism of Warsh's lack of forward guidance misplaced.
Cook sounded open to raising rates in recent speeches (Timiraos).
Bessent allegedly saved the bond market via non-use of FIMA repo facility (Andy Constan).
Earnings & sectors
The TranscriptMSFT commercial RPO +84% to $678B, GOOG Cloud backlog +$50B, AMZN backlog $496B triple-digit YoY.
ABNB CEOAI reduced time to concept-to-launch by 60%.
Disney boosts share buyback to at least $9B in FY26.
Positioning & flows
The Market EarRetail back in GLD gold ETF; déjà vu pattern.
Andy ConstanNVDA described as 'GE Capital and AIG rolled into one' – a packaged credit tool.
Liz Ann SondersProfitable R2 stocks still outperforming non-profitable, despite latter's surge.
Macro data
TimiraosCore CPI expected to round down to 0.2% m/m in July.
Warren PiesJuly NFP -23k with negative revisions; UE rate at 4.1% due to falling LFPR.
Brad SetserJapan MoF likely to test USD/JPY 160 level before September; profit-taking operations reduce debt.
3Actions4 · save now, convert to tasks later
Watchlist
4 items
Wednesday's July CPI report (Aug 12) – core m/m and y/y.
Fed speeches from Hammack, Cook, and any Warsh comments.
Japan MoF intervention watch: USD/JPY 160 level.
AI infrastructure capex announcements from hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN) – backlog updates.
→What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
◆July CPI print12 Aug
◆September FOMC decision on rate hikeSep meeting
◆AI datacenter buildout trajectory and capex commentaryongoing
◆Potential Treasury QRA changes and bond market interventionthis week
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+47 bp)
10Y Treasury4.65% · Easing
Crude (WTI)$82.0 · Disinflat.