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11. 8. 2026
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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today

Equities are charging higher on disinflation tailwinds, but crypto lags with mixed momentum — a decisive break above BTC's recent range would confirm the risk-on shift, while a VIX spike above 20 would flip the script.

60Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish

Macro conditions are clearly risk-on: the dollar and yields are easing, oil is falling, and stocks are hitting new highs. Crypto, however, remains in a neutral zone with BTC dominance steady and altcoin momentum weak, preventing a unified cross-asset bullish signal. The overall neutral momentum score (60) reflects this divergence, and until digital assets join the rally, the market is not fully aligned.

11. 8. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
119.1
▼ 0.4% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YEasing
4.65%
▼ 4bp · yields easing
GoldHedge
$4,407
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTIDisinflat.
$82.0
▼ 4.9% · eases inflation
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceNo feed
est
est · dominance unavailable
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
37 / 100
18 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedFear
29
fear · balanced mood
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.001%/8h
≈ +1% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,753
▲ 9.9% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXComplacent
14.9
▼ 1.7% · low vol, complacent
HY creditTight
270 bp
• 1bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
Confirmation: Current cross-asset tailwinds (softer dollar, lower yields, cheap oil) remain supportive for risk assets, consistent with the bullish equity regime.
⚠︎Flip risk: A hawkish surprise from the Fed or a sharp reversal in yields (10Y above 4.75%) would challenge the disinflation narrative and could trigger a risk-off shift.
⚠︎Flip risk: A VIX spike above 20 or a break of SPX 200DMA would signal sentiment deterioration, outweighing the current macro tailwinds.
Top crypto
The Club · UNI up to $3.99 (1.28x vs entry)
$6–8 implied. 91% deployed · $652 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto
Top stocks
CPI Make-or-Break for Fed Disinflation
A soft CPI could relieve pressure on the Fed and support risk assets; a hot print could revive rate hike fears and trigger a sell-off in bonds and equities.
Open Stocks
What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
US CPI data release (next Wednesday)12 Feb
BTC options expiry (monthly on Friday)14 Feb
Fed speak schedule — any shift in tone on rate cutsthis week
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls