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1. 8. 2026
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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumNeutral
50/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXNo feed
est
est · 200DMA unavailable
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
17.1
▼ 17.3% · vol contained
HY creditNo feed
est
est · OAS unavailable
Biggest stocks news
US launches fresh strikes on Iran; crude oil risk premium rises
Why it matters — Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East directly impacts oil prices and risk sentiment. Energy sector likely to rally, while broader market may see risk-off rotation.
𝕏x.comenergy
9.5
1Signalsthe 6 that matter
01
US launches fresh strikes on Iran; crude oil risk premium rises
9.5
Why — Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East directly impacts oil prices and risk sentiment. Energy sector likely to rally, while broader market may see risk-off rotation.
𝕏x.comEnergy
02
Big Tech capex surges 87% YoY to $165B in Q2
Why — Massive spending raises questions about ROI and sustainability, but also signals strong demand for AI compute. Could pressure margins for hyperscalers but benefit semiconductor and infrastructure suppliers.
𝕏x.comAi
9.0
03
Warsh floats fewer Fed meetings; Musalem says 'Mr Market spoke'
8.5
Why — Signals potential structural shift in Fed communication and pace of policy adjustments, which could reduce the frequency of market-moving events but also increase uncertainty around rate decisions.
𝕏x.comRates
04
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE annualized at 1.4% in June, lowest since 2020
Why — Encouraging inflation data supports the case for the Fed to hold or cut rates, but core trends remain above target. Markets will watch for confirmation in official PCE releases.
𝕏x.comMacro
8.0
05
Semiconductor volatility spikes to 75%, only third time ever
Why — Extreme volatility in semis indicates positioning stress and potential for further moves. Could signal a capitulation bottom or more downside depending on fundamentals.
𝕏x.comEquities
8.0
06
Rates-equity divergence: bond traders nervous, equity traders complacent
7.5
Why — If rates continue to rise or volatility persists, equities may eventually correct. This is a key cross-asset signal for positioning and risk management.
𝕏x.comMacro
2Watch3 themes · 9 notes

Earnings & sectors

Microsoft CFOAll sequential RPO growth from non-frontier-model companies; operating income grew 21% (The Transcript)
Nike sinks to lowest since 2014 on warning of challenged sales environment (Sherwood News)
SpaceX gets bullish ratings from analysts after historic IPO (Sherwood News)

Positioning & flows

Robinhood traders bought the dip repeatedly during July volatility (Sherwood News)
Andy ConstanSKHY up 95bp when local up 24% highlights credit divergence (dampedspring)
The Market EarKOSPI squeeze may be bigger than just positioning (themarketear)

Macro data

July PMIManufacturing 53.8, Services 53.6, Composite 53.6 (Liz Ann Sonders)
June new home sales rose 1.6% m/m vs 4.8% est, median price -3.3% (Liz Ann Sonders)
Lyn Alden3/3/3 plan check-up shows none of the three targets met (LynAldenContact)
3Actions5 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

5 items
Track July ISM Manufacturing PMI for early read on economic momentum
Monitor July nonfarm payrolls for labor market tightness signals
Watch Fed speakers' comments on the dissent and meeting frequency proposal
Assess Iran oil supply disruption risk and crude price reaction over the weekend
Follow semi volatility levels and any further 'Leopold liquidation' unwinds
What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
Fed meeting frequency debateongoing
AI capex ROI scrutiny from Q2 earnings callsthis week
Geopolitical risk premium in oil from Iran strikesthis week
July CPI releasemid-Aug
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+47 bp)
10Y Treasury— · No feed
Crude (WTI)$84.3 · Disinflat.