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July 2026 · Financial · Stocks
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S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,316
▲ 4.3% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
20.7
▲ 13.5% · vol contained
HY creditTight
287 bp
▲ 3bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
Core PCE rises just 0.13% in June, mildest since March 2025
Why it matters — A cooler-than-feared core PCE reduces pressure on the Fed to hike and supports the case for a pause, which is bullish for rate-sensitive equities and bonds.
1Signalsthe 6 that matter
01
Core PCE rises just 0.13% in June, mildest since March 2025
Why — A cooler-than-feared core PCE reduces pressure on the Fed to hike and supports the case for a pause, which is bullish for rate-sensitive equities and bonds.
𝕏x.comMacro
9.5
02
Amazon and Apple earnings crush estimates, AI capex surge confirmed
Why — These prints confirm that AI-driven cloud demand is accelerating, but rising memory costs and capex are pressuring margins. The market is rewarding execution but punishing any sign of margin compression.
𝕏x.comEarnings
9.0
03
KOSPI surges 14% as SK Hynix and Samsung jump 25%+
8.5
Why — The violent rally in Korean semis suggests a massive short squeeze and rotation into value/cyclical markets. It signals that the AI trade is broadening beyond US mega-caps, but also carries extreme retail-driven volatility.
𝕏x.comEquities
04
Fed's Warsh signals possible shift in inflation metrics, drawing criticism
8.0
Why — Any perceived shift in the Fed's inflation framework would be a major credibility event, potentially unanchoring inflation expectations and causing a sharp selloff in long-dated Treasuries.
𝕏x.comRates
05
AI positioning flips from panic to squeeze in 24 hours
7.5
Why — The rapid positioning flip shows how crowded and fragile the AI trade has become. The forced buying from leveraged ETFs is providing a short-term floor, but the underlying volatility remains extreme.
𝕏x.comAi
06
Hyperscaler cloud revenue growth is the key catalyst for normalizing correlations
Why — If cloud revenue growth continues to accelerate across all hyperscalers, it could broaden the AI trade beyond a few mega-caps and reduce the extreme dispersion in sector returns.
𝕏x.comAi
7.0
2Watch4 themes · 8 notes
Rates & the Fed
Nick TimiraosBullard called the 30-year yield selloff 'nerve-wracking' for the Fed.
Lyn AldenBond bulls have stopped arguing for deflation and are just watching Warsh.
Earnings & sectors
The TranscriptAmazon CFO said AWS backlog stands at $496B, growing triple digits YoY.
The TranscriptApple CEO warned memory costs will continue rising through September.
Charlie BilelloAmazon's AWS trailing 12-month revenue of $148B exceeds 474 S&P 500 companies.
Positioning & flows
Andy Constan$24B in leveraged ETF AUM still needs to be deployed into semis and QQQ.
CitriniBeing long tech in July felt like a historical momentum drawdown.
Macro data
Liz Ann SondersJuly PMI data showed manufacturing at 53.8 and services at 53.6.
3Actions5 · save now, convert to tasks later
Watchlist
5 items
Track the July nonfarm payrolls report for labor market softness.
Monitor the 30-year Treasury yield for further selloff pressure.
Watch for follow-through in Korean equities (KOSPI/KORU) as a proxy for the rotation trade.
Track Apple's memory cost guidance for margin implications across tech.
Watch for any Fed commentary on the inflation framework shift.
→What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
◆July nonfarm payrollsthis week
◆Fed's Warsh speech at Jackson Holelate Aug
◆Nvidia earnings (AI capex confirmation)late Aug
◆Continued rotation out of Mag 7 into value/cyclicalsongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+45 bp)
10Y Treasury4.67% · Tightening
Crude (WTI)$84.3 · Disinflat.