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29. 7. 2026
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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,429
▲ 5.9% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
18.7
▲ 0.5% · vol contained
HY creditTight
281 bp
▲ 2bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
Kevin Warsh Launches Five Task Forces Amid Fed Friction
Why it matters — A fractured Fed leadership that abandons forward guidance introduces significant policy uncertainty, potentially increasing interest rate volatility and complicating market pricing of future rate paths.
𝕏x.comrates
8.5
1Signalsthe 5 that matter
01
Kevin Warsh Launches Five Task Forces Amid Fed Friction
8.5
Why — A fractured Fed leadership that abandons forward guidance introduces significant policy uncertainty, potentially increasing interest rate volatility and complicating market pricing of future rate paths.
𝕏x.comRates
02
AI Momentum Unwinds as South Korea's Leveraged ETFs Rebalance
8.0
Why — Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and potential margin-call-driven liquidations in high-beta tech names as synthetic leverage unwinds.
𝕏x.comEquities
03
SK Hynix Plunges 10% on Earnings Miss Despite Strong AI Demand
Why — The sharp selloff on a backward-looking miss despite strong forward guidance shows that market expectations for AI infrastructure companies have reached priced-for-perfection levels.
𝕏x.comEarnings
7.8
04
Google's Record Q2 Net Income Overshadowed by Negative Free Cash Flow
Why — Hyperscaler capex is no longer being given a free pass by the market; companies must demonstrate that massive AI spending translates directly into free cash flow.
𝕏x.comEarnings
7.5
05
Crude Oil Rallies While Inflation Swaps Fall in Divergent Move
Why — If oil prices remain elevated, inflation swaps will have to reprice upward, forcing the Fed to maintain a more hawkish stance than the market currently expects.
𝕏x.comEnergy
7.2
2Watch3 themes · 5 notes

Rates & the Fed

Charlie Bilello [x] notes that the market expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady at 3.50-3.75% but potentially signal a greater likelihood of a rate hike before year-end.
Andy Constan [x] mocks market overreactions to minor oil price movements, suggesting a small bump in crude will not force the Fed into aggressive 100bp hikes.

Earnings & sectors

Andy Constan [x] notes that the pause in speculative frenzy has severely hit neo-cloud data center stocks like ORCL, IREN, CRWV, and NBIS, though he is eyeing tactical long setups.

Macro data & FX

Brad Setser [x] highlights the unusual dynamic where a plunging South Korean stock market has actually led to a stronger Korean Won, contrary to typical emerging market behavior.
Brad Setser [x] also notes that China's early 2026 export/import volume data was distorted because the country was slow to recognize the global rise in semiconductor prices.
3Actions4 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

4 items
Track the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and any changes in policy language regarding future rate hikes.
Monitor South Korean semiconductor export data and leveraged ETF flows for signs of stabilization in the AI supply chain.
Watch crude oil price levels relative to 1-year inflation swaps to see if inflation expectations begin to catch up to energy costs.
Monitor capital expenditure commentary from upcoming mega-cap tech earnings releases to gauge free cash flow pressure.
What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Press ConferenceWednesday
Rethinking of Fed economic models via Warsh's new task forcesthis week
Potential tactical bottoming and reversal in semiconductor and AI momentum namesongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+35 bp)
10Y Treasury4.65% · Easing
Crude (WTI)$84.4 · Cost push