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23. 7. 2026

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July 2026 · Financial · Stocks

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Stocks live · indices

S&P 500

7,653

-0.3% 24h

Nasdaq

26,151

+0.7% 24h

Stocks momentumRisk-on

70/100

BearishNeutralBullish

Trend · SPXUptrend

7,499

▲ 7.1% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA

BreadthMixed

≈ 60%est

est · share of S&P > 200DMA

VIXCalm

17.1

▼ 8.6% · vol contained

HY creditTight

269 bp

• 0bp · credit calm

Biggest stocks news

Fed Rate Hike Probability for July Meeting Surges to 36%

Why it matters — Investors must prepare for a highly volatile FOMC meeting next week, as a surprise rate hike would aggressively reprice the front end of the curve and challenge equity valuations.

𝕏x.comrates

8.5

1Signalsthe 4 that matter

Fed Rate Hike Probability for July Meeting Surges to 36%

Why — Investors must prepare for a highly volatile FOMC meeting next week, as a surprise rate hike would aggressively reprice the front end of the curve and challenge equity valuations.

𝕏x.comRates

8.5

Alphabet Reports Record Q2 Revenue and Massive Unrealized Equity Gains

Why — The quality of earnings is highly dependent on non-operating equity valuations rather than core business operations, which could lead to sharp earnings volatility if private tech valuations cool.

𝕏x.comEarnings

8.0

Alphabet Signals Ongoing AI Infrastructure Supply Constraints and Rising CapEx

7.8

Why — This confirms that the AI infrastructure buildout is far from over, providing a structural tailwind for semiconductor and hardware suppliers despite the broader market rotation.

𝕏x.comAi

GPU Availability Index Tightens Post-Kimi K3 Release

Why — Physical hardware bottlenecks remain a primary constraint for AI development, supporting high pricing power for leading chip designers.

𝕏x.comAi

7.5

2Watch3 themes · 6 notes

Rates & the Fed

Nick Timiraos reports that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has scheduled a press conference for next week's FOMC meeting, keeping markets on high alert.

Jim Bianco warns that if the Fed fights rate hikes, a slow panic among bond investors could heat up, pushing yields past the current 5.15% level.

Macro Data & Inflation

Liz Ann Sonders highlights that the Atlanta Fed's July survey showed year-ahead business inflation expectations easing to +2.2% from +2.3% in June.

Nick Timiraos notes that forecasters expect June core PCE to print at a mild +0.18% (+3.3% y/y), which would be the lowest monthly reading since November.

Sectors & Commodities

Charlie Bilello tracks massive commodity price increases since the start of the Iran war, led by Sulfur (+142%), European Natural Gas (+97%), and WTI Crude (+30%).

Andy Constan notes that Alphabet's zero share buyback was unsurprising given its recent $80 billion debt issuance.

3Actions3 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

3 items

Track the June PCE inflation print to confirm if core PCE cools to the forecasted +0.18% level.

Monitor the 10-year Treasury yield to see if it sustains levels above 5.15% ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Watch the July 29 FOMC rate decision and Powell's press conference for any formal hawkish policy shifts.

→What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks

◆June PCE Price Index releasethis week

◆FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference29 Jul

◆Further tightening in global GPU and compute availability indices

LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls

Macro backdropat a glance

Fed pathCurve flat (+36 bp)

10Y Treasury4.63% · Tightening

Crude (WTI)$84.4 · Cost push