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July 2026 · Financial · Stocks
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S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,509
▲ 7.4% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
18.6
▼ 0.6% · vol contained
HY creditTight
269 bp
▼ 4bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
Core PCE Inflation Expected to Hit Multi-Year Low in June
Why it matters — A cooling core PCE print provides the Fed with crucial leeway to avoid a July rate hike, potentially capping the recent surge in Treasury yields and supporting equity valuations.
1Signalsthe 5 that matter
01
Core PCE Inflation Expected to Hit Multi-Year Low in June
Why — A cooling core PCE print provides the Fed with crucial leeway to avoid a July rate hike, potentially capping the recent surge in Treasury yields and supporting equity valuations.
𝕏x.comMacro
8.5
02
TLT Hits 24-Year Low as Dr. Lacey Hunt Capitulates on Long Bond Trade
Why — The capitulation of structural bond bulls signals a regime shift where higher-for-longer growth and fiscal issuance expectations are permanently repricing the long end of the curve.
𝕏x.comRates
8.2
03
AI Capex Winners Face Rotation as GPU Availability Tightens
Why — Physical supply bottlenecks in high-end chips could cap the near-term revenue growth of major AI hardware players, accelerating the ongoing market rotation into non-consensus AI plays.
𝕏x.comAi
8.0
04
Fed Officials Keep Hawkish Tone as Hammack and Jefferson Sound Warnings
Why — The persistent hawkishness from voting members suggests that any market expectations for rapid, aggressive rate cuts later this year may be overly optimistic.
𝕏x.comRates
7.8
05
Oil Squeezes and Silver Options Market Flips in Commodity Rebound
7.5
Why — A sustained squeeze in energy and commodities threatens to inject renewed inflationary pressures into the supply chain, complicating the Fed's path to target inflation.
𝕏x.comEnergy
2Watch3 themes · 6 notes
Rates & the Fed
Jim Bianco (X) notes fed funds futures recently priced in a 45% chance of a rate hike on July 29, highlighting extreme market tension ahead of key inflation data.
Eurodollar University (YouTube) warns that the oil market and yield curve are behaving strangely, pointing to underlying monetary stress.
Earnings & Sectors
Charlie Bilello (X) reports that IBM's 25% single-day drop last week was a 15-sigma event, proving that financial markets do not follow a normal distribution.
The Transcript (X) highlights Interactive Brokers Q2 net revenue growing 28% to $1.90B, though the stock traded slightly down after hours.
Positioning & Flows
Liz Ann Sonders (X) reports that large-cap ETFs returned to the leaderboard for the week ending July 17, while thematic ETFs suffered heavy outflows.
Citrini (X) notes a strategic pivot away from consensus AI capex winners toward less established players with real upside.
3Actions4 · save now, convert to tasks later
Watchlist
4 items
Track the July 29 FOMC rate decision and whether futures continue to price in hike risks.
Monitor the upcoming June PCE inflation release to see if core prints at or below the expected +0.18%.
Watch technical levels on the TLT ETF following its drop to a 24-year low of 82.53.
Follow the 3Fourteen Fast Availability Index for further tightening in GH200 and B200 GPU markets.
→What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
◆June PCE inflation print releasethis week
◆Federal Reserve July policy rate decision29 Jul
◆Unwinding of crowded short positions in crude oilongoing
◆Further rotation out of consensus AI capex beneficiaries into secondary thematic playsthis week
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+37 bp)
10Y Treasury4.60% · Tightening
Crude (WTI)$79.2 · Cost push