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16. 7. 2026
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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,653
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
26,151
+0.7% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,572
▲ 8.5% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
16.5
▼ 3.8% · vol contained
HY creditTight
272 bp
▲ 3bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
Kevin Warsh Expresses Cautious Inflation View at Capitol Hill Hearing
Why it matters — Investors must prepare for a Fed that remains highly sensitive to sticky service and structural inflation, potentially keeping terminal rates higher for longer.
𝕏x.comrates
8.5
1Signalsthe 5 that matter
01
Kevin Warsh Expresses Cautious Inflation View at Capitol Hill Hearing
8.5
Why — Investors must prepare for a Fed that remains highly sensitive to sticky service and structural inflation, potentially keeping terminal rates higher for longer.
𝕏x.comRates
02
June PPI Cools Significantly Below Wall Street Estimates
Why — Cooling wholesale inflation supports the fundamental case for eventual Fed rate cuts, even if the timing remains a subject of intense debate.
𝕏x.comMacro
8.0
03
Violent Market Rotation Punishes Momentum Factor While Megacaps Hold
7.8
Why — Investors heavily exposed to high-flying momentum strategies face severe drawdowns even as major indices remain supported by a handful of megacaps.
𝕏x.comEquities
04
Semiconductor Equipment 'Fab 5' Face Bubblicious Multiples and High Hurdles
Why — The risk-reward profile for semi-cap equipment has deteriorated significantly, making them prime candidates for a sharp correction if AI infrastructure spend cools.
𝕏x.comAi
7.5
05
BlackRock Assets Under Management Surge Past Record $15 Trillion
Why — Unprecedented asset flows into giant asset managers indicate that liquidity remains highly abundant, supporting overall market valuations.
𝕏x.comEarnings
7.2
2Watch3 themes · 6 notes

Rates & the Fed

Nick Timiraos (WSJ) reported Donald Trump's comments on inflation and rates, where Trump expressed respect for Kevin Warsh but noted the Fed board could be 'hostile' to rate cuts.
Andy Constan emphasized that the upcoming July FOMC meeting is 'not a live meeting' for rate changes, urging patience.

Geopolitics & Energy

Jim Bianco highlighted the start of the Iranian shipping blockade, questioning the impact on dark fleet tankers and potential US passage fees.
Sherwood News reported that the US has launched another round of military strikes on Iran, marking the second action in 24 hours.

Positioning & Flows

The Market Ear pointed out that one of Wall Street's biggest YTD AI winners is seeing its positioning sit at multi-year lows, representing a highly hated trade.
Lyn Alden launched a new venture, Orange Juice, focused on buying and holding private businesses backed by a Bitcoin treasury.
3Actions3 · save now, convert to tasks later

Watchlist

3 items
Track the performance of the Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) relative to the S&P 500 to gauge the depth of the active factor rotation.
Monitor global crude oil price volatility following the implementation of the Iranian shipping blockade and US military strikes.
Watch regional manufacturing indicators following the stronger-than-expected July Empire State Manufacturing print of +15.6.
What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
July FOMC Meeting interest rate decision and policy statementlate July
Q2 corporate earnings reports from major technology and semiconductor firmsthis month
Further congressional testimony and public speeches from Fed nominee Kevin Warsh
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+42 bp)
10Y Treasury4.58% · Easing
Crude (WTI)$79.2 · Cost push