Daily intelligence brief
News
13. 7. 2026
Archive
Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today

Markets are locked in a neutral holding pattern with overall momentum at 55/100, where the primary trigger for a breakout is a sustained break in the US Dollar below its current 120.7 tailwind threshold.

55Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish

Both crypto and equities are exhibiting balanced, range-bound regimes with momentum scores hovering near neutral. While tight high-yield credit spreads and an easing US Dollar provide a supportive backdrop, the lack of decisive breadth in both stocks and altcoins suggests capital is remaining highly selective. Gold's steady holding pattern near $4,060 further reflects a market waiting for a clearer macro catalyst rather than chasing risk.

13. 7. 2026·as of 07:15·crypto + stocks
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
120.7
▼ 0.4% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YSteady
4.54%
▼ 2bp · yields steady
GoldHedge
$4,060
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTINo feed
est
est · WTI unavailable
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBalanced
56.3%
• 0.0pp · balanced book
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
33 / 100
16 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedFear
26
fear · balanced mood
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.007%/8h
≈ +8% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeNeutral
Trend · SPXNo feed
est
est · 200DMA unavailable
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
15.8
▼ 6.3% · vol contained
HY creditTight
270 bp
• 0bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
A continued cooling of the US Dollar below 120.0 confirms the slow-burn upward drift for risk assets.
⚠︎A sudden spike in the VIX past 20 accompanied by widening high-yield credit spreads would invalidate the current calm.
⚠︎BTC dominance surging past 60% while Altcoin season momentum drops below 20 would signal a severe liquidity drain from broader crypto markets.
Top crypto
The Club · ZEC down to $517.61 (0.77x vs entry)
Stop-loss: $150. 100% deployed · $0 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto
Top stocks
Fed's Williams Outlines Precise Monthly Core Inflation Threshold for Rate Hikes
This sets a clear, quantifiable monthly benchmark for investors to gauge the likelihood of a July or late-summer Fed rate hike, elevating the importance of upcoming CPI and PCE prints.
Open Stocks
What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
Weekly US jobless claims and regional manufacturing surveys to test the macro resilience narrative.Thursday
Monitoring BTC funding rates and open interest for signs of leveraged build-up ahead of weekly options expiry.Friday
S&P 500 reconstitution and index rebalancing flows impacting equity breadth metrics.Next Week
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls