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Stocks live · indices
S&P 500
7,483
-0.3% 24h
Nasdaq
25,871
+0.2% 24h
Stocks momentumRisk-on
70/100
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,483
▲ 7.8% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
16.6
▲ 0.9% · vol contained
HY creditTight
275 bp
• 1bp · credit calm
Biggest stocks news
June Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Far Short of Estimates at 57k
Why it matters — The weak headline hiring figure combined with negative revisions indicates a cooling labor market, though the low unemployment rate complicates the Fed's path, leaving a September hike probability at roughly 55%.
1Signalsthe 4 that matter
01
June Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Far Short of Estimates at 57k
Why — The weak headline hiring figure combined with negative revisions indicates a cooling labor market, though the low unemployment rate complicates the Fed's path, leaving a September hike probability at roughly 55%.
Ssherwood.newsMacro
8.5
02
Nike Sinks to 12-Year Low on Challenged Consumer Outlook
Why — Nike's sharp decline highlights a broader trend of consumer exhaustion in the discretionary retail space, signaling that high interest rates and inflation are weighing heavily on global household budgets.
Ssherwood.newsEarnings
7.8
03
Meta Surges on Reports of Entering Cloud Infrastructure Business
Why — This development offers a potential blueprint for other mega-cap tech companies to monetize their massive AI infrastructure buildouts, easing investor fears of a capital expenditure bubble.
7.5
04
Bitcoin and Gold Post Historically Weak First-Half Performance
Why — The simultaneous drawdown in gold and crypto suggests a regime of tight liquidity or a shift in investor preference toward traditional yielding assets, challenging the standard 'debasement trade' thesis.
𝕏x.comEquities
7.2
2Watch3 themes · 6 notes
Consumer & Corporate Trends
The Transcript [x] notes Constellation Brands' CEO highlighting a K-shaped consumer environment, where value-driven and premium experiences are diverging.
The Transcript [x] highlights a Bank of International Settlements warning that disappointing AI returns could turn the current capex boom into a protracted investment bust.
Geopolitics & Energy
Jim Bianco [x] points out that The Economist has issued a mea culpa on its bearish oil calls, historically a contrarian signal for higher energy prices.
Eurodollar University [youtube] warns that recent signals in the physical oil market are pointing to a highly unfavorable macroeconomic scenario.
Fiscal & Sovereign Policy
Lyn Alden [x] argues that the US fiscal deficit is unlikely to decrease materially, noting that the DOGE initiative dismantled without achieving its budget-cutting targets.
Brad Setser [x] highlights that major US multinationals like Apple, Microsoft, Lilly, and Pfizer continue to pay substantial taxes in Ireland rather than the US.
3Actions4 · save now, convert to tasks later
Watchlist
4 items
Track the S&P 500 performance divergence between the 41 AI-related stocks and the remaining 459 components.
Monitor global retail sales data and consumer discretionary earnings following Nike's downbeat sportswear guidance.
Watch the evolving probability of a September Fed rate hike, currently sitting near 55% after the mixed June payrolls report.
Follow physical crude oil price spreads and futures curves for confirmation of supply-demand imbalances.
→What's expectedstocks, next 1–2 weeks
◆Fed policy speculation and comments from Kevin Warsh's campthis week
◆Q2 corporate earnings season kickoff with a focus on consumer spending resiliencemid-July
◆Hyperscaler capital expenditure updates and excess compute monetization announcementsongoing
LLM read from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls
Macro backdropat a glance
Fed pathCurve flat (+35 bp)
10Y Treasury4.48% · Tightening
Crude (WTI)$71.9 · Cost push