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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today
While equity momentum remains firmly risk-on, the broader market is held in a Neutral 55/100 holding pattern as crypto capitulation fears and rising 10Y yields cap further expansion unless the US 10Y drops back below 4.25%.
55Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish
We are seeing a stark divergence between resilient U.S. equities trending safely above their 200DMA and a crypto market frozen in Extreme Fear. A soft US Dollar provides a structural tailwind for risk assets, but rising bond yields (4.48%) and creeping crude prices are acting as a macro brake, keeping altcoins sidelined and capital concentrated in large-cap stocks.
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
120.9
▼ 0.1% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YTightening
4.48%
▲ 4bp · yields rising
GoldHedge
$4,161
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTICost push
$71.9
▲ 2.2% · adds cost-push
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBalanced
55.8%
balanced book
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
43 / 100
21 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedExtreme Fear
24
extreme fear · capitulation risk
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.007%/8h
≈ +8% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,483
▲ 7.8% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
16.6
▲ 0.9% · vol contained
HY creditTight
275 bp
• 1bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
✓A stabilization in crypto Fear & Greed above 40 alongside flat high-yield credit spreads confirms the current equity-led consolidation is healthy.
⚠︎If the US 10Y yield surges past 4.60%, it will likely choke off the S&P 500's uptrend and trigger further liquidations in digital assets.
⚠︎A breakdown in S&P 500 market breadth below 50% would signal that the equity rally is exhausting, forcing a defensive rotation into Gold.
Top crypto
The Club · ZEC down to $455.65 (0.68x vs entry)
Stop-loss: $150. 91% deployed · $590 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto Top stocks
June Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Far Short of Estimates at 57k
The weak headline hiring figure combined with negative revisions indicates a cooling labor market, though the low unemployment rate complicates the Fed's path, leaving a September hike probability at roughly 55%.
Open Stocks →What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
◆Monitor weekly Treasury auction demand to see if the 10Y yield pressure begins to ease.Treasury Auctions
◆Watch for a reversion in perp funding rates as an early sign of leverage returning to crypto.Weekly Close
◆Track crude oil price action near $75 for signs of compounding supply-side inflation pressure.WTI Pivot
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls