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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today
The global market is split as resilient risk-on equities shrug off rising yields, but a flip to defensive positioning will trigger if the S&P 500 breadth falls below 50% or the VIX spikes past 20.
55Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish
US equities maintain a strong uptrend supported by tight credit spreads and a soft US dollar, despite pressure from rising 10-year yields and crude oil. Meanwhile, crypto remains in extreme fear, failing to capture the equity momentum as capital consolidates in BTC and stable funding. This divergence suggests a highly selective risk appetite where traditional equity buffers are holding, but speculative liquidity is highly defensive.
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
120.9
▼ 0.1% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YTightening
4.48%
▲ 4bp · yields rising
GoldHedge
$4,175
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTICost push
$71.9
▲ 2.2% · adds cost-push
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBalanced
55.7%
balanced book
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
59 / 100
29 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedExtreme Fear
21
extreme fear · capitulation risk
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.010%/8h
≈ +11% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,483
▲ 7.8% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
16.6
▲ 0.9% · vol contained
HY creditTight
274 bp
• 1bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
✓S&P 500 stays firmly above its 200-day moving average while high-yield credit spreads remain below 300 bps, confirming equity resilience.
⚠︎A continued climb in US 10Y yields above 4.60% coupled with rising crude oil could choke equity valuations and spark a broader risk-off move.
⚠︎If Crypto Fear & Greed capitulates further and BTC dominance breaks 60%, expect a sharp liquidity drain from altcoins into cash.
Top crypto
The Club · ZEC down to $435.72 (0.65x vs entry)
Stop-loss: $150. 91% deployed · $590 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto Top stocks
Trump Signals Legal Push to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook
Any successful attempt to remove a sitting Fed governor 'for cause' would significantly undermine the perceived independence of the central bank, introducing a major political risk premium into US rates and currency markets.
Open Stocks →What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
◆Monitor the upcoming US CPI release for clues on whether the Fed will tolerate the current yield run-up.Next Week
◆Watch for a potential mean-reversion bounce in crypto sentiment if perp funding rates remain positive amid spot stabilization.Short-term
◆Track weekly high-yield credit ETF flows to gauge if institutional confidence in the equity uptrend is beginning to fracture.Weekly
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls