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Market regime live
Risk regime · reading the tapeNeutral
The one thing today
While resilient equities and easing macro yields support a risk-on posture, the extreme fear in crypto (15/100) must resolve above its current capitulation floor to prevent a broader cross-asset drag.
55Neutral
BearishNeutralBullish
A stark divergence has emerged as US equities maintain a robust uptrend with tight credit spreads, while crypto languishes in deep capitulation sentiment despite a supportive macro backdrop of a softer US Dollar and easing 10Y yields. This decoupling suggests localized liquidations in digital assets rather than a systemic risk-off event, keeping the overall cross-asset momentum in a balanced, neutral state. For the broader rally to resume in earnest, crypto sentiment must stabilize to match the supportive equity and credit tailwinds.
Cross-asset · what's driving risk
US DollarTailwind
120.9
▼ 0.1% · dollar easing, risk tailwind
US 10YEasing
4.38%
▼ 2bp · yields easing
GoldHedge
$4,033
live spot · debasement / haven bid
Crude · WTISteady
$78.9
• 0.0% · crude steady
Crypto regimeMixed
BTC dominanceBalanced
55.3%
balanced book
Altcoin seasonBTC-led
71 / 100
35 of top 50 beat BTC 30d
Fear & GreedExtreme Fear
15
extreme fear · capitulation risk
Perp funding · OIMild long
+0.007%/8h
≈ +8% APR · balanced carry
Stocks regimeRisk-on
Trend · SPXUptrend
7,440
▲ 7.4% vs 200DMA · above the 200DMA
BreadthMixed
≈ 60%est
est · share of S&P > 200DMA
VIXCalm
17.6
▼ 4.1% · vol contained
HY creditTight
280 bp
▼ 3bp · credit calm
⚑︎What would change my mindconfirmations & flip-risks
✓Continued tightening of high-yield credit spreads and stable VIX confirm that the equity-led risk-on regime remains fundamentally intact.
⚠︎A failure of Bitcoin to hold key support levels amid persistent Extreme Fear could trigger margin-related liquidations that spill over into equities.
⚠︎A sudden reversal in the US Dollar or 10Y yields back upward would eliminate the current macro tailwind, forcing a defensive shift across both books.
Top crypto
The Club · ZEC down to $397.00 (0.59x vs entry)
Stop-loss: $150. 90% deployed · $590 dry powder · 13 assets.
Open Crypto Top stocks
Stock Market Concentration Reaches 150-Year High on AI Theme
Investors relying on index-level signals are getting a distorted view of economic health, as the vast majority of equities are flat, indicating a much softer underlying economy than the headline S&P 500 suggests.
Open Stocks →What's expectedacross both books, next 1–2 weeks
◆Monitoring weekly crypto perp funding rates and exchange inflows for signs of institutional dip-buying.Weekly
◆US macro data releases to confirm if the easing trend in the 10Y yield has further room to run.Upcoming Data
◆S&P 500 breadth expansion above the current 60% threshold to validate the sustainability of the equity uptrend.Trend Watch
Generated from today's sources qualitative read, no buy/sell calls